In the book, which had started out as a series of speeches on the Tiananmen Square uprising, Overholt predicted that China would be the big winner in achieving market reform while the economies of Russia and many of the eastern European companies would fall apart under shock therapy policies advocated by the West. Overholt feels the events of the last several years have vindicated his thesis. He also spent 18 years at Bankers Trust, managing a country risk team in New York from to and then serving as regional strategist and Asia research head based in Hong Kong.
Interstate conflict with regional consequences Large-scale involuntary migration Source: Globally, inequality between countries has been decreasing at an accelerating pace over the past 30 years. Among other things, this has led to an increase in CEO compensation as firms have become larger.
This has contributed to anti-establishment sentiment in advanced economies, and although emerging markets have seen poverty fall at record speed, 12 they have not been immune to rising public discontent — evident, for example, in large demonstrations against corruption across Latin America.
Unorthodox countercyclical policies such as quantitative easing — large-scale purchases of government bonds by central banks — have evolved into enduring features of economic policy frameworks.
Sustained low interest rates can distort the financial mechanisms that underpin healthy economic activity: This in turn complicates the process of clearing the debt overhangs that in many countries remains an unresolved legacy of the pre-crisis boom, weighing on growth by diverting income towards debt servicing rather than fresh consumption or investment.
Is it time for the pendulum to swing from monetary to fiscal policy? In the United States, President-elect Trump campaigned on the promise of increased infrastructure spending, and globally there is tentative evidence of a gradual move towards fiscal loosening. Policy preferences matter too.
In the Eurozone, for example, governments have been slow to respond to repeated exhortations from Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, to find more space for fiscal loosening. Beyond monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, productivity growth has also been slow to recover from the crisis.
Structural rates of unemployment remain high, particularly among young people in Europe, and the United States has seen a marked slump in labour participation rates.
In sum, it is difficult to identify routes that will lead back to robust global rates of economic growth.
However, growth is now only part of the challenge policy-makers need to address. As socio-economic outcomes are increasingly determined globally, popular frustration is growing at the inability of national politics to provide stability. The combination of economic inequality and political polarization threatens to amplify global risks, fraying the social solidarity on which the legitimacy of our economic and political systems rests.
New economic systems and policy paradigms are urgently needed to address the sources of popular disenchantment. Rebuilding Communities Issues of identity and culture were central to the two most dramatic Western political results ofin the United Kingdom and the United States.
This is part of a broader trend affecting both international and domestic politics. Outside the European Union, polarization in Turkey has deepened since22 while Russia has been expressing its national political identity in increasingly assertive foreign policy stances.
One possibility is that the global decision-makers who mostly comprise the GRPS panel have not been sufficiently attuned to this risk. Another way of interpreting the GRPS, however, is to focus on the underlying trends rather than the risks. By placing both polarization and intensifying national sentiment among the top five trends see Table 1.
In the West, decades of rapid social and economic change have widened generation gaps in values, disrupted traditional patterns of affiliation and community, and eroded the support of mainstream political parties. Pew research found stark divisions in the self-described values of supporters of President-elect Trump and Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton: Both the Brexit and President-elect Trump victories featured 1 outsiders to major party politics 2 successfully engaging traditionalist voters with 3 appeals to sovereignty rooted in national identity and pride.
They can trigger new risks or exacerbate existing ones, but they can also open the way to responses that mitigate risks. However, it will be challenging to find political narratives and policies that can repair decades-long cultural fault-lines while preserving, for example, gender and minority rights.
Failure could further undermine social and cultural cohesion: Daron Acemoglu, author with James Robinson of Why Nations Fail, has cautioned that current divisions in the United States risk undermining not just the electoral process but the institutions and norms on which it is founded.
Driven by the convergence between digital, biological and physical technologies, the Fourth Industrial Revolution 4IR is creating new global risks and exacerbating existing risks.
Perhaps because of the increasing ubiquity of innovative technology, respondents to the GRPS have tended not to include technological risks among the most impactful or the most likely to occur.A news site dedicated to news analysis of current events from the perspective of Bible prophecy with Hal Lindsey.
Get the latest science news and technology news, read tech reviews and more at ABC News. William Overholt, a senior fellow at the Harvard University Asia Center, wrote a controversial book in entitled The Rise of China.
In the book, which had started out as a series of speeches. Biography. Yassmin Abdel-Magied is a mechanical engineer, award winning social advocate, author and broadcaster.
A Sudanese-born Muslim woman, she was named the Queensland Young Australian of the Year and released her memoir, Yassmin’s Story, a year later at the age of Get the latest international news and world events from Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and more.
See world news photos and videos at ashio-midori.com Aid workers for charity Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) used prostitutes in Africa, a BBC report said on Thursday, citing anonymous whistle-blowers.